American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. (AEO) has been consolidating a 43% bear market drop from its August 22 high of $29.89 to its December 24 low of $17.00. The stock finished at $20.43 on Tuesday, March 5, up 5.7% in 2019 and a bull market gain of 20.2% from its low on December 24. Nonetheless, the stock remains in bear market territory, having fallen 31.6% from its August 22 peak.
The store provides men’s and women’s clothing and accessories, as well as women’s personal care goods. Victoria Secret is losing market share to American Eagle’s body-conscious Aerie brand.
Analysts anticipate that American Eagle will announce earnings per share (EPS) of 42 cents after the market closes on Wednesday, Feb. 6. For three straight quarters, the store recorded higher-than-expected earnings per share. Wall Street expects sales to fall year over year, so guidance will be critical. American Eagle’s digital channel and same-store sales, including foot traffic, will be monitored. According to Macrotrends, the retailer’s stock is well valued, with a P/E ratio of 13.40 and a dividend yield of 2.76%.
The daily chart for American Eagle
The daily chart of America Eagle depicts the bear market slide from the high on August 22 to the low on December 24. Take note of the reduced price gap on August 29 due to a negative response to results. The earnings announcement on December 11 contributed to the December 24 low.
The December 26 closing of $19.33 was an essential input to my proprietary analytics, resulting in my yearly value level of $19.19 and semiannual and quarterly pivots of $20.92 and $21.68, respectively. The last input to my analytics was the closing of $20.40 on February 28th, which resulted in my monthly pivot of $21.46. At $22.54, the stock is trading below its 200-day simple moving average.
The weekly chart for American Eagle
American Eagle’s weekly chart is bullish, with the company trading above its five-week modified moving average of $20.50 and above its 200-week simple moving average, or “reversion to the mean,” of $17.28. Take note of how the stock may have been purchased at its “reversion to the mean” price of $17.08 at the end of 2018. The 12-x-3-x-3 weekly slow stochastic value is expected to rise to 67.97 this week, up from 64.96 on March 1.
Buy American Eagle shares on weakness to my yearly value level of $19.19 and the 200-week simple moving average of $17.28, and sell on strength to the 200-day simple moving average of $22.54. My semiannual, monthly, and quarterly pivot points are $20.92, $21.46, and $21.79.
The author has no holdings in any of the stocks mentioned and has no intentions to start new positions in the next 72 hours.
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