Using the Absorption Rate in Real Estate to Measure Demand
The current state of the housing market is advantageous for home sellers. The National Association of Realtors announced that although existing house sales were down slightly in May 2021 (0.9 percent), the median selling price of an existing home was up 23.6 percent from a year earlier. This was despite the fact that the number of homes sold was the same. The latter figure indicates that there is still a significant demand for residential properties.
Demand in the housing market can be measured in a variety of straightforward ways, two of which are the number of sales and the median price. The rate at which the market is absorbing new customers is another crucial statistic.
What Does It Mean to Use the Absorption Rate?
The absorption rate is something that professionals working in the housing market are interested in for a variety of reasons. It’s a tool that’s used by real estate brokers and agents to help them decide how much to ask for a house that’s up for sale. Since there is a higher degree of demand and stronger competition for the housing stock, real estate agents and brokers are able to increase the price in a market that is favorable to sellers, in which available properties do not remain on the market for an extended period of time.
Appraisers determine the value of a home by considering a number of factors, including historic prices in comparison to current market values, as well as absorption rates. It is also possible for builders to use absorption rates as a gauge in order to determine whether or not it would be beneficial to build more homes right now or wait till the market is in a better position.
What Exactly Is the Rate of Absorption?
The rate at which properties that are available in a market are sold over the course of a specified amount of time is what is referred to as the absorption rate. To determine the rate, take the total number of properties that are offered on the market and divide it by the number of homes that were sold during a given time period (for example, over the course of 30 days). This will give you the rate.
Let’s say there are one thousand homes on the market at any given time in a particular housing market. Due to the fact that the current market favors sellers, 250 of those residences were bought up in less than a month’s time. This market has an absorption rate of twenty-five percent, which is the percentage you get when you divide two hundred fifty by one thousand.
Or, let’s imagine there is a property market that has 2,000 homes available for sale within a particular price range, but only 50 of those properties have sold in the past 30 days. In this scenario, the absorption rate would be equal to 2.5 percent, which can be calculated by dividing 50 by 2,000.
A housing market is regarded to be a seller’s market if the absorption rate is more than 20 percent. On the other hand, markets that have an absorption rate that is less than 15 percent are considered to be buyers’ markets.
Inverting the equation will give you an estimate of the amount of time it will take for a certain market to become depleted of available home inventory. To determine this, divide the entire number of homes that are available by the total number of homes that have been sold in the allotted amount of time. Using the first illustration from the previous section, you would take 1,000 and divide it by 250, which would lead you to the conclusion that the market in question would run out of properties for sale in just four months.
What Other Aspects Contribute to the Formation of Demand?
Alterations to the interest rates on mortgages have the potential to make or break the decision of potential buyers to enter the home market. A person’s plan to purchase a home could be put on hold if economic factors trigger a sudden and considerable increase in interest rates over the course of a few months. For instance, if it is widely anticipated that the Federal Reserve would raise the federal funds rate, this may eventually, although more likely indirectly, have an effect on mortgage rates.
Demand for real estate can also be influenced by shifting demographics, such as the increasing number of millennials who are nearing the age when they are able to buy their first homes. Legislation at the national and state levels, particularly fiscal inducements, may also play a role.